🌱 Soldiers and Scouts

Soldier:

directionally-motivated reasoning

• Sharing your tribe’s beliefs, regardless of evidence, makes others like and trust you
• Being overly confident you’re going to succeed convinces others you’re worth $ investment
• Being overly optimistic about your health convinces others you’re worth time/emotional investment

we mostly have been brainwashed into thinking that confidence will eventually cause competence… I think it’s much more appropriate to think of confidence as a compensatory strategy for lower competence.

Scout:

accuracy-motivate reasoning

Maybe only 10-20% of folks. Leads to long term success.